The source assessed Early Risk-on / R2. New orders stayed above 50 for two months, while sustained private credit confirmation remained absent. The latest orders reading fell slightly.
01Policy support
02Private credit
03Order activity
04Prices & profits
A framework for observation; evidence is needed at each step.
The weekly report’s five scoring modules and policy observations
CFETS, explicitly dated onshore intraday readings and fixings are separate. Spot and fixing each have one reading, not a continuous FX trend. Model deviation cannot be calculated without an expected fixing.
02
Cross-border flows
Net settlement, conversion ratios and cross-border flows, alongside trade surplus and capital leakage
Net settlement, cross-border net receipts and trade surplus are separate. Bank-client settlement has two July–August report readings, retaining the 61.51 vs rounded 61.5 distinction. FX purchase ratios, longer settlement history and capital-leakage series are missing.
03
Private credit
Social financing, government vs private credit, household / corporate long-term loans and M1 / M2
PPI YoY / MoM and upstream contribution are separate, as are monthly / YTD profits. Several added indicators have one reading; price components and profit breadth still lack history.
05
Domestic demand
PMI, new orders, services orders, retail and investment
Services-only and non-manufacturing orders are distinct, as are monthly retail sales and cumulative investment growth. New demand indicators have only August report readings; sustained recovery remains unconfirmed.
+0.39 points vs. prior period · Insufficient observations
History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Preserves actual dates cited by the reports: September 18 is a weekly observation; September 24 is the cited as-of date. This is not a regular weekly series.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
Preserves actual dates cited by the reports: September 18 is a weekly observation; September 24 is the cited as-of date. This is not a regular weekly series.
Preserves actual dates cited by the reports: September 18 is a weekly observation; September 24 is the cited as-of date. This is not a regular weekly series.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Preserves explicitly dated onshore intraday readings quoted by the weekly report, not daily closes. A lower value means a stronger RMB against the dollar. One observation does not establish a trend; subtracting the fixing does not establish deviation from a market model.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
Preserves explicitly dated onshore intraday readings quoted by the weekly report, not daily closes. A lower value means a stronger RMB against the dollar. One observation does not establish a trend; subtracting the fixing does not establish deviation from a market model.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
The September 21 fixing quoted by the report, in CNY per USD; separate from intraday spot and market-model expectations. No model deviation is calculated without an expected fixing, and other dates remain absent.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
The September 21 fixing quoted by the report, in CNY per USD; separate from intraday spot and market-model expectations. No model deviation is calculated without an expected fixing, and other dates remain absent.
02Cross-border flows
4 charts
Net settlement, conversion ratios and cross-border flows, alongside trade surplus and capital leakage
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Read net FX settlement alongside the exchange rate.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Non-bank cross-border receipts minus payments; distinct from bank FX settlement.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Retains the precise August value from the report. Rounded repetitions in later reports are not new observations.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
Bank-client FX settlement ratio (report excerpt) · Monthly
Report excerpt · Unverified
61.51%
+4.28 pp vs. prior period · Insufficient observations
History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
The weekly report quotes July 57.23% and August 61.51%, with another passage rounded to 61.5%. The cited NBD article, republished by Eastmoney, labels this bank-client settlement, not all enterprises; the official calculation denominator is not independently verified. Two months show a monthly rise, not a sustained trend. Changes use percentage points; no zero reference.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
The weekly report quotes July 57.23% and August 61.51%, with another passage rounded to 61.5%. The cited NBD article, republished by Eastmoney, labels this bank-client settlement, not all enterprises; the official calculation denominator is not independently verified. Two months show a monthly rise, not a sustained trend. Changes use percentage points; no zero reference.
The weekly report quotes July 57.23% and August 61.51%, with another passage rounded to 61.5%. The cited NBD article, republished by Eastmoney, labels this bank-client settlement, not all enterprises; the official calculation denominator is not independently verified. Two months show a monthly rise, not a sustained trend. Changes use percentage points; no zero reference.
03Private credit
7 charts
Social financing, government vs private credit, household / corporate long-term loans and M1 / M2
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Monthly flows are seasonal; compare like-for-like periods.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Track longer-term financing while distinguishing policy support from private demand.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
YoY growth quoted from the original weekly report. One observation does not establish a trend.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Read alongside M1. Report excerpts have not been independently verified.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Uses the percentage-point gap explicitly stated in the report; no inferred monthly history.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
The reported CNY 1.66 trillion is converted to CNY 16,600 × 100 million. Read alongside government bonds and private loans.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
The reported approximate CNY 1.01 trillion is converted to approximately CNY 10,100 × 100 million; retains estimated status.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
+0.3 pp vs. prior period · Last 3 average above prior 3
History: 8 observations · Local history available
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change. Negative means below the same month a year earlier; positive means above. A rise does not necessarily indicate stronger demand. This history starts in 2026 using the official 2025 base.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
2026-08-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-09-09 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-07-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-08-09 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-06-30 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-07-09 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-05-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-06-10 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-04-30 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-05-11 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-03-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-04-10 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-02-28 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-03-09 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
2026-01-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-02-11 09:30 Beijing time
National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
August YoY inflation quoted from the original report; not an independently verified NBS series.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
August core CPI YoY, distinct from headline CPI and PPI; retains only explicit report values.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
August monthly profit growth, not interchangeable with January–August cumulative growth. Traceable to the October 5 report only; not backfilled into the September 28 morning report.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
August monthly profit growth, not interchangeable with January–August cumulative growth. Traceable to the October 5 report only; not backfilled into the September 28 morning report.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
The August period-end represents January–August cumulative YoY growth; charted separately from monthly growth.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
August PPI month-on-month inflation, distinct from YoY. One month of price increases does not establish a domestic-demand recovery.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
Four upstream sectors’ contribution to PPI MoM · Monthly
Report excerpt · Unverified
0.31pp
Insufficient observations
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Combined contribution of oil extraction, refining, organic chemicals and nonferrous sectors to August PPI MoM, in percentage points. This is not their own price growth; the report value is approximate.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
Combined contribution of oil extraction, refining, organic chemicals and nonferrous sectors to August PPI MoM, in percentage points. This is not their own price growth; the report value is approximate.
05Domestic demand
9 charts
PMI, new orders, services orders, retail and investment
-0.1 points vs. prior period · Last 3 average near prior 3
History: 13 observations · Local history available
50 separates expansion from contraction. A single crossing needs confirmation.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
+0.3 points vs. prior period · Insufficient observations
History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
50 separates expansion from contraction. Headline PMI is distinct from manufacturing new orders. August and September values are quoted from the October 5 report.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
50 separates expansion from contraction. Headline PMI is distinct from manufacturing new orders. August and September values are quoted from the October 5 report.
50 separates expansion from contraction. Headline PMI is distinct from manufacturing new orders. August and September values are quoted from the October 5 report.
+1.2 points vs. prior period · Insufficient observations
History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Includes services and construction; not a services-only index. August and September values come from the same original report.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
+2.4 points vs. prior period · Insufficient observations
History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Non-manufacturing new orders include services and construction. August 44.1 is not the services-only 44.5 reading; the series are not mixed.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
August services-only new orders, distinct from non-manufacturing orders of 44.1, which include construction. 50 is the expansion threshold. No comparable September reading is supplied; non-manufacturing 46.5 is not a substitute.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
August services-only new orders, distinct from non-manufacturing orders of 44.1, which include construction. 50 is the expansion threshold. No comparable September reading is supplied; non-manufacturing 46.5 is not a substitute.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
August monthly retail-sales growth, distinct from January–August cumulative growth. One report reading does not establish a sustained trend.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
January–August cumulative YoY growth, dated at August period-end. This is not August monthly growth or an investment amount.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
January–August cumulative YoY growth, separate from total fixed-asset investment. This is not a private-credit flow.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict
Cumulative property-investment growth in the report’s August demand section, for January–August. Separate from sales floor area, developer loans and mortgage funding.
New observations from reports
Unverified report excerpts. This separate curve does not replace or extend the main chart above. See the main chart’s source label for its verification status.
Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.
Cumulative property-investment growth in the report’s August demand section, for January–August. Separate from sales floor area, developer loans and mortgage funding.
What would confirm the next move?
Await the next household and corporate lending releases.