Observatory / China economy
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RESEARCH ARCHIVEPrimary data and report excerpts are labeled separately. Incomplete history stays incomplete.About the data
CHINA ECONOMY

China economy

Is policy support reaching private demand?

30 indicators
Theme assessmentR2 · Early recoveryOrders expand. Credit awaits confirmation.Source note ·

The source assessed Early Risk-on / R2. New orders stayed above 50 for two months, while sustained private credit confirmation remained absent. The latest orders reading fell slightly.

01Policy support
02Private credit
03Order activity
04Prices & profits

A framework for observation; evidence is needed at each step.

The weekly report’s five scoring modules and policy observations

Report evidence
02

Cross-border flows

Net settlement, conversion ratios and cross-border flows, alongside trade surplus and capital leakage

Reading report evidence…

Coverage boundary

Net settlement, cross-border net receipts and trade surplus are separate. Bank-client settlement has two July–August report readings, retaining the 61.51 vs rounded 61.5 distinction. FX purchase ratios, longer settlement history and capital-leakage series are missing.

04

Prices / profits

PPI YoY / MoM and components, core CPI and industrial profits

Reading report evidence…

More supporting indicators (2)
Coverage boundary

PPI YoY / MoM and upstream contribution are separate, as are monthly / YTD profits. Several added indicators have one reading; price components and profit breadth still lack history.

05

Domestic demand

PMI, new orders, services orders, retail and investment

Reading report evidence…

More supporting indicators (4)
Coverage boundary

Services-only and non-manufacturing orders are distinct, as are monthly retail sales and cumulative investment growth. New demand indicators have only August report readings; sustained recovery remains unconfirmed.

Risk-on score /10 · R1–R5 reflation clock · Private-credit gate · Fiscal-financial expansion · RMB structural balance · PBOC easing window

The charts below cover the linked numeric series. Other checkpoints remain report evidence; a linked chart alone does not confirm an entire module.

Reading the latest cloud report…

Key trends

Independent scales · Changes vs. prior observation
Latest observations2 primary verified28 report excerpts0 awaiting data

01RMB / FX

3 charts

USD/CNY, CFETS, fixing deviation and broad appreciation

Is the RMB strengthening against a currency basket?

CFETS RMB basket index · Irregular

Report excerpt · Unverified
102.93points
+0.39 points vs. prior period Insufficient observations

History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Preserves actual dates cited by the reports: September 18 is a weekly observation; September 24 is the cited as-of date. This is not a regular weekly series.

As of: 2026-09-24 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (points)Type
2026-09-24102.93Complete per source
2026-09-18102.54Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-09-24 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    截至9月24日,CFETS指数已经升到 **102.93,创2022年7月以来新高**

    Preserves actual dates cited by the reports: September 18 is a weekly observation; September 24 is the cited as-of date. This is not a regular weekly series.

  • 2026-09-18 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    CFETS人民币指数 102.54,周涨1.05;

    Preserves actual dates cited by the reports: September 18 is a weekly observation; September 24 is the cited as-of date. This is not a regular weekly series.

How is intraday RMB strength against the dollar changing?

USD/CNY onshore intraday reading · Irregular

Report excerpt · Unverified
6.695CNY/USD
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Preserves explicitly dated onshore intraday readings quoted by the weekly report, not daily closes. A lower value means a stronger RMB against the dollar. One observation does not establish a trend; subtracting the fixing does not establish deviation from a market model.

As of: 2026-09-21 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (CNY/USD)Type
2026-09-216.695Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-09-21 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    与此同时,9月21日在岸人民币一度升至 **6.6950**,创三年半以上新高;央行当天中间价6.7487,也是2023年2月以来最强,而且近期中间价相对市场模型的“压升值力度”正在减弱。

    Preserves explicitly dated onshore intraday readings quoted by the weekly report, not daily closes. A lower value means a stronger RMB against the dollar. One observation does not establish a trend; subtracting the fixing does not establish deviation from a market model.

How is the RMB fixing changing?

USD/CNY daily fixing · Irregular

Report excerpt · Unverified
6.7487CNY/USD
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

The September 21 fixing quoted by the report, in CNY per USD; separate from intraday spot and market-model expectations. No model deviation is calculated without an expected fixing, and other dates remain absent.

As of: 2026-09-21 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (CNY/USD)Type
2026-09-216.7487Complete per source
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  • 2026-09-21 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    与此同时,9月21日在岸人民币一度升至 **6.6950**,创三年半以上新高;央行当天中间价6.7487,也是2023年2月以来最强,而且近期中间价相对市场模型的“压升值力度”正在减弱。

    The September 21 fixing quoted by the report, in CNY per USD; separate from intraday spot and market-model expectations. No model deviation is calculated without an expected fixing, and other dates remain absent.

02Cross-border flows

4 charts

Net settlement, conversion ratios and cross-border flows, alongside trade surplus and capital leakage

Is cross-border dollar supply improving?

Net FX settlement · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
485USD 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Read net FX settlement alongside the exchange rate.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: State Administration of Foreign Exchange
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (USD 100m)Type
2026-08-31485Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

Are cross-border receipts exceeding payments?

Non-bank cross-border net inflow · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
624USD 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Non-bank cross-border receipts minus payments; distinct from bank FX settlement.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (USD 100m)Type
2026-08-31624Complete per source
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  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    非银行部门涉外收入7768亿美元、付款7144亿美元: **跨境净流入 +624亿美元。**

    Non-bank cross-border receipts minus payments; distinct from bank FX settlement.

Is trade providing a net supply of dollars?

Monthly trade surplus · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
1,190.9USD 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Retains the precise August value from the report. Rounded repetitions in later reports are not new observations.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (USD 100m)Type
2026-08-311,190.9Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月出口4014.4亿美元、进口2823.6亿美元,贸易顺差 **1190.9亿美元**

    Retains the precise August value from the report. Rounded repetitions in later reports are not new observations.

Is bank-client willingness to settle FX improving?

Bank-client FX settlement ratio (report excerpt) · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
61.51%
+4.28 pp vs. prior period Insufficient observations

History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

The weekly report quotes July 57.23% and August 61.51%, with another passage rounded to 61.5%. The cited NBD article, republished by Eastmoney, labels this bank-client settlement, not all enterprises; the official calculation denominator is not independently verified. Two months show a monthly rise, not a sustained trend. Changes use percentage points; no zero reference.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-3161.51Complete per source
2026-07-3157.23Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    **57.23% → 61.51%。**

    The weekly report quotes July 57.23% and August 61.51%, with another passage rounded to 61.5%. The cited NBD article, republished by Eastmoney, labels this bank-client settlement, not all enterprises; the official calculation denominator is not independently verified. Two months show a monthly rise, not a sustained trend. Changes use percentage points; no zero reference.

  • 2026-07-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    **57.23% → 61.51%。**

    The weekly report quotes July 57.23% and August 61.51%, with another passage rounded to 61.5%. The cited NBD article, republished by Eastmoney, labels this bank-client settlement, not all enterprises; the official calculation denominator is not independently verified. Two months show a monthly rise, not a sustained trend. Changes use percentage points; no zero reference.

03Private credit

7 charts

Social financing, government vs private credit, household / corporate long-term loans and M1 / M2

Are households willing to borrow?

Household long-term loans · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
-822CNY 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Monthly flows are seasonal; compare like-for-like periods.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: People’s Bank of China
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (CNY 100m)Type
2026-08-31-822Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

Is corporate credit demand recovering?

Corporate long-term loans · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
3,200CNY 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Track longer-term financing while distinguishing policy support from private demand.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: People’s Bank of China
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (CNY 100m)Type
2026-08-313,200Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

Report excerpt · Unverified
4.1%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

YoY growth quoted from the original weekly report. One observation does not establish a trend.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-314.1Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    M1 **+4.1%**

    YoY growth quoted from the original weekly report. One observation does not establish a trend.

How is broad money supply changing?

M2 growth YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
7.5%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Read alongside M1. Report excerpts have not been independently verified.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-317.5Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    M2 **+7.5%**

    Read alongside M1. Report excerpts have not been independently verified.

Report excerpt · Unverified
-3.4pp
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Uses the percentage-point gap explicitly stated in the report; no inferred monthly history.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (pp)Type
2026-08-31-3.4Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    M1-M2剪刀差从 -3.7pp 小幅收窄至 **-3.4pp**。

    Uses the percentage-point gap explicitly stated in the report; no inferred monthly history.

Who is driving financing growth?

New aggregate social financing · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
16,600CNY 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

The reported CNY 1.66 trillion is converted to CNY 16,600 × 100 million. Read alongside government bonds and private loans.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (CNY 100m)Type
2026-08-3116,600Complete per source
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  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    社融新增 **1.66万亿元**

    The reported CNY 1.66 trillion is converted to CNY 16,600 × 100 million. Read alongside government bonds and private loans.

Are government bonds driving financing growth?

Government bond net financing · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
10,100CNY 100m
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

The reported approximate CNY 1.01 trillion is converted to approximately CNY 10,100 × 100 million; retains estimated status.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (CNY 100m)Type
2026-08-3110,100Estimate
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月政府债净融资约 **1.01万亿元**

    The reported approximate CNY 1.01 trillion is converted to approximately CNY 10,100 × 100 million; retains estimated status.

04Prices / profits

7 charts

PPI YoY / MoM and components, core CPI and industrial profits

How are factory-gate prices changing?

Industrial producer prices (YoY) · Monthly

Verified primary source
3.8%
+0.3 pp vs. prior period Last 3 average above prior 3

History: 8 observations · Local history available

National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change. Negative means below the same month a year earlier; positive means above. A rise does not necessarily indicate stronger demand. This history starts in 2026 using the official 2025 base.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Verified primary sourcePrimary source: National Bureau of Statistics
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-313.8Primary source value
2026-07-313.5Primary source value
2026-06-304.1Primary source value
2026-05-313.9Primary source value
2026-04-302.8Primary source value
2026-03-310.5Primary source value
2026-02-28-0.9Primary source value
2026-01-31-1.4Primary source value
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-09-09 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-07-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-08-09 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-06-30 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-07-09 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-05-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-06-10 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-04-30 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-05-11 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-03-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-04-10 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-02-28 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-03-09 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

  • 2026-01-31 · Verified on 2026-10-09 · National Bureau of Statistics · Original release: 2026-02-11 09:30 Beijing time

    National industrial producer output prices, year-on-year change; not month-on-month change, input prices or a cumulative average. The 2026 series uses the 2025 base and each month’s official release.

Are consumer prices rising?

CPI inflation YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
0.8%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

August YoY inflation quoted from the original report; not an independently verified NBS series.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-310.8Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    最新价格数据仍是8月: **CPI +0.8%**

    August YoY inflation quoted from the original report; not an independently verified NBS series.

Are prices improving excluding food and energy?

Core CPI inflation YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
1%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

August core CPI YoY, distinct from headline CPI and PPI; retains only explicit report values.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-311Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    **核心CPI +1.0%**

    August core CPI YoY, distinct from headline CPI and PPI; retains only explicit report values.

Is profit growth continuing in the latest month?

Industrial profits monthly YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
4.2%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

August monthly profit growth, not interchangeable with January–August cumulative growth. Traceable to the October 5 report only; not backfilled into the September 28 morning report.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-314.2Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    8月单月利润增速只有 **+4.2%**

    August monthly profit growth, not interchangeable with January–August cumulative growth. Traceable to the October 5 report only; not backfilled into the September 28 morning report.

How is year-to-date profit growth changing?

Industrial profits YTD YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
15.7%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

The August period-end represents January–August cumulative YoY growth; charted separately from monthly growth.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-3115.7Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    1—8月规模以上工业企业利润同比 **+15.7%**

    The August period-end represents January–August cumulative YoY growth; charted separately from monthly growth.

Are producer prices rising month on month?

PPI inflation MoM · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
0.4%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

August PPI month-on-month inflation, distinct from YoY. One month of price increases does not establish a domestic-demand recovery.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-310.4Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    **PPI环比 +0.4%。**

    August PPI month-on-month inflation, distinct from YoY. One month of price increases does not establish a domestic-demand recovery.

Are producer-price increases concentrated upstream?

Four upstream sectors’ contribution to PPI MoM · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
0.31pp
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Combined contribution of oil extraction, refining, organic chemicals and nonferrous sectors to August PPI MoM, in percentage points. This is not their own price growth; the report value is approximate.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (pp)Type
2026-08-310.31Estimate
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    石油开采、炼油、有机化工和有色四个行业合计贡献了约 **0.31个百分点** 的PPI环比涨幅

    Combined contribution of oil extraction, refining, organic chemicals and nonferrous sectors to August PPI MoM, in percentage points. This is not their own price growth; the report value is approximate.

05Domestic demand

9 charts

PMI, new orders, services orders, retail and investment

Is demand returning to expansion?

Manufacturing PMI: new orders · Monthly

Verified primary source
50.5points
-0.1 points vs. prior period Last 3 average near prior 3

History: 13 observations · Local history available

50 separates expansion from contraction. A single crossing needs confirmation.

As of: 2026-09-30 · Verified primary sourcePrimary source: National Bureau of Statistics
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (points)Type
2026-09-3050.5Primary source value
2026-08-3150.6Primary source value
2026-07-3148.5Primary source value
2026-06-3051.2Primary source value
2026-05-3149.9Primary source value
2026-04-3050.6Primary source value
2026-03-3151.6Primary source value
2026-02-2848.6Primary source value
2026-01-3149.2Primary source value
2025-12-3150.8Primary source value
2025-11-3049.2Primary source value
2025-10-3148.8Primary source value
2025-09-3049.7Primary source value
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

Is manufacturing activity expanding?

Manufacturing PMI · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
50.1points
+0.3 points vs. prior period Insufficient observations

History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

50 separates expansion from contraction. Headline PMI is distinct from manufacturing new orders. August and September values are quoted from the October 5 report.

As of: 2026-09-30 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (points)Type
2026-09-3050.1Complete per source
2026-08-3149.8Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-09-30 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    9月制造业PMI从49.8升至 **50.1**

    50 separates expansion from contraction. Headline PMI is distinct from manufacturing new orders. August and September values are quoted from the October 5 report.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    9月制造业PMI从49.8升至 **50.1**

    50 separates expansion from contraction. Headline PMI is distinct from manufacturing new orders. August and September values are quoted from the October 5 report.

Is non-manufacturing activity recovering?

Non-manufacturing business activity · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
50.2points
+1.2 points vs. prior period Insufficient observations

History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Includes services and construction; not a services-only index. August and September values come from the same original report.

As of: 2026-09-30 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (points)Type
2026-09-3050.2Complete per source
2026-08-3149Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-09-30 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    非制造业商务活动指数从49.0升至 **50.2**

    Includes services and construction; not a services-only index. August and September values come from the same original report.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    非制造业商务活动指数从49.0升至 **50.2**

    Includes services and construction; not a services-only index. August and September values come from the same original report.

Is non-manufacturing demand improving?

Non-manufacturing new orders · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
46.5points
+2.4 points vs. prior period Insufficient observations

History: 2 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Non-manufacturing new orders include services and construction. August 44.1 is not the services-only 44.5 reading; the series are not mixed.

As of: 2026-09-30 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (points)Type
2026-09-3046.5Complete per source
2026-08-3144.1Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-09-30 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    非制造业新订单虽然仍只有 **46.5**,但比8月44.1明显改善

    Non-manufacturing new orders include services and construction. August 44.1 is not the services-only 44.5 reading; the series are not mixed.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-10-05 · Read source summary
    非制造业新订单虽然仍只有 **46.5**,但比8月44.1明显改善

    Non-manufacturing new orders include services and construction. August 44.1 is not the services-only 44.5 reading; the series are not mixed.

Is services demand expanding?

Services PMI new orders · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
44.5points
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

August services-only new orders, distinct from non-manufacturing orders of 44.1, which include construction. 50 is the expansion threshold. No comparable September reading is supplied; non-manufacturing 46.5 is not a substitute.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (points)Type
2026-08-3144.5Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月制造业新订单确实升到了 **50.6**,但只有一个月;制造业PMI整体仍只有49.8。与此同时非制造业商务活动指数49.0,服务业新订单只有 **44.5**。

    August services-only new orders, distinct from non-manufacturing orders of 44.1, which include construction. 50 is the expansion threshold. No comparable September reading is supplied; non-manufacturing 46.5 is not a substitute.

Is monthly consumption recovering sustainably?

Retail sales monthly YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
0.4%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

August monthly retail-sales growth, distinct from January–August cumulative growth. One report reading does not establish a sustained trend.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-310.4Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月零售同比仅 **+0.4%**;1—8月固定资产投资 **-7.2%**、民间投资 **-10.1%**。

    August monthly retail-sales growth, distinct from January–August cumulative growth. One report reading does not establish a sustained trend.

Is year-to-date investment demand expanding?

Fixed-asset investment YTD YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
-7.2%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

January–August cumulative YoY growth, dated at August period-end. This is not August monthly growth or an investment amount.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-31-7.2Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月零售同比仅 **+0.4%**;1—8月固定资产投资 **-7.2%**、民间投资 **-10.1%**。

    January–August cumulative YoY growth, dated at August period-end. This is not August monthly growth or an investment amount.

Is private-sector investment expanding independently?

Private investment YTD YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
-10.1%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

January–August cumulative YoY growth, separate from total fixed-asset investment. This is not a private-credit flow.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-31-10.1Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月零售同比仅 **+0.4%**;1—8月固定资产投资 **-7.2%**、民间投资 **-10.1%**。

    January–August cumulative YoY growth, separate from total fixed-asset investment. This is not a private-credit flow.

Is the contraction in property investment easing?

Property investment YTD YoY · Monthly

Report excerpt · Unverified
-19.9%
Insufficient observations

History: 1 observations · Limited history; no trend verdict

Cumulative property-investment growth in the report’s August demand section, for January–August. Separate from sales floor area, developer loans and mortgage funding.

As of: 2026-08-31 · Report excerpt · UnverifiedSource named in report: Original China weekly report
View data table (last 24 observations)
PeriodValue (%)Type
2026-08-31-19.9Complete per source
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Report and verification dates are labeled separately. Original release timestamps are shown when explicitly provided by the source. Quotations retain their source language.

  • 2026-08-31 · Recorded 2026-09-28 · Read source summary
    8月零售同比仅 **+0.4%**;1—8月固定资产投资 **-7.2%**、民间投资 **-10.1%**。 地产端: 房地产投资 **-19.9%**

    Cumulative property-investment growth in the report’s August demand section, for January–August. Separate from sales floor area, developer loans and mortgage funding.

What would confirm the next move?

Await the next household and corporate lending releases.

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China economy weekly report · 2026-10-05

Complete original public research is available in Chinese, including historical tables, judgments and source links.

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China economy weekly report · 2026-09-28

Complete original public research is available in Chinese, including historical tables, judgments and source links.

Weekly